We also overweight credit, global duration and the euro, and underweight USD. None of Principal Real Estate or its affiliates or any Principal Agents makes or has been authorised to make any representation or warranties, whether express or implied, in relation to Principal Real Estate or regarding the truth, accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained on this website at any time. No representation or warranty is given by Principal Real Estate, its affiliates or the Principal Agents as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts contained in the information on this website. Furthermore, nothing contained on this website is or should be relied on as a promise or representation as to the future. No reliance may be placed by any person for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained on this website or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness at any time.
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In our view:
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GA Tax-Aware models
This distinctive approach provides the GA Selects team with four key structural advantages when it comes to portfolio construction. U.S. trade uncertainty, although less extreme now, remains a risk to trade-dependent markets. Many European and Asian currencies are also undervalued versus the U.S. dollar offering another potential opportunity. While the Bank of Canada has provided considerable easing, it’s likely we are near the end of the current easing cycle. Although negotiations continue, U.S. trade continues to be a major source of uncertainty. Canadian equities, driven by strong commodities returns, have outperformed other markets but continued outperformance is difficult to forecast.
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- Many managers prefer to express this view through credit, and others through modest, but targeted equity overweights.
- Our funds often possess holdings – and employ trading strategies – that are simply inaccessible through ETFs.
Interest rates are likely to continue to ease
However, recent firmer inflation prints in the U.S. and the fear of potentially inflationary policy (tax cuts and tariffs) has driven yields back up. These policy settings may seem to favor USD, but we expect narrowing growth differentials between U.S. and other economies to weigh on the dollar in 2H25. Efforts by the U.S. to reduce the current account deficit through tariffs are also likely to result in lower net demand for USD. So, while we see little evidence of the “Sell America” theme highlighted by financial media, we acknowledge that demand for U.S. assets may decline slightly, at the margin. Our portfolios are lightly positioned in equities, with U.S. exposure concentrated in tech and communication services, alongside regional overweights in Japan, Hong Kong and emerging markets.
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Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Diversification among investment options and asset classes may help to reduce overall volatility. Internationally, fiscal stimulus and easier monetary policy combine to give some upside risks to growth, particularly in 2026.
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With that said, given the recent appreciation of bond prices combined with higher coupon income that can be earned now, our outlook remains positive for the next 12-to-18 months across global fixed income markets. The environment is supportive of risk-on assets like equities as inflation has peaked, global fiscal policy remains stimulative and global monetary policy continues to ease. While tariffs are inflationary, central banks are likely to look past resulting short-term price increases and continue to ease interest rate policy as the broader disinflationary trend continues. Global economic themes that are most likely to influence our views on portfolio asset allocation over the next 12-to-18 months. China delivered the strongest equity returns, while energy topped the commodity charts. REITs stood out as the best-performing global asset over the past month, with Japanese REITs leading across both short- and long-term timeframes.
Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints
The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and market pricing point to two rate cuts in 2025. But given ongoing labor market resilience and risks of inflation rising in the second half, we expect just a single cut in 2025 with an additional two in 2026 as inflation moderates. No SolicitationNothing contained in this website shall constitute an offer or solicitation, in relation to units in the Funds or generally, in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorised. This material does not constitute any specific legal, tax or accounting advice.
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Decisions based on information contained on this website are the sole responsibility of the visitor. No Guarantee of Timeliness This website may contain videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. The October 2025 Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints reflect a balanced outlook, with support for risk assets from fiscal stimulus and central bank policies offset by concerns about elevated valuations, stubborn inflation, and a weakening labor market. Tactical portfolio positioning remains neutral on equities, underweight on bonds—especially U.S. long-term Treasuries—and modestly overweight on cash to capitalize on attractive yields and maintain flexibility amid market uncertainties.
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- By synthesizing perspectives from major financial institutions including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others, this analysis provides investors with actionable insights for portfolio construction across asset classes, factors, and geographic regions in an evolving market landscape.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) related investments will likely continue to support a large proportion of cap-weighted indices.
- Asset allocation and diversification may not protect against market risk, loss of principal or volatility of returns.
- Please consult with qualified professionals for this type of advice.The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy.
GA Selects Tax-Aware Strategy UMA Portfolio
These will potentially offset tariff concerns, creating a favorable environment for risk assets in regions such as Europe and China. We expect a solid second quarter GDP print in July to show that the economy was running roughly at trend in the first half of this year. Trade uncertainty could push economic growth below trend in the second half, nevertheless recession risk is contained. In 2026, the impact of the U.S. fiscal and tax package should push growth back toward trend.